Excerpt 2019 letter

“Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.” [Warren Buffett] The markets seem increasingly irrational to me. Here are a few other worrying trends I am seeing: Capital is chasing bonds, even though cash yields no...

Excerpt Q1 2019 letter

“If everything you do needs to work on a three-year time horizon, then you’re competing against a lot of people. But if you’re willing to invest on a seven-year time horizon, you’re now competing against a fraction of those people, because very...

Excerpt Q2 2018 letter

Thoughts on Value Investing: The Fallacies of Perception In 2007, a man started to play the violin at a metro station in Washington DC on a cold January morning. He played six Bach pieces for about 45 minutes. During that time, since it was rush hour, thousands of...

Excerpt 2016 letter

Thoughts on the Macroeconomic Environment According to an eye-opening article in The Atlantic, 50% of Americans would not be able to pay an unexpected $400 bill, as they have no spare cash and are maxed out on their credit cards. To a large extent, this poverty and...

Excerpt Q2 2015 letter

Thoughts on investing in a negative yield environment Earlier this year, Finland floated a €1 billion five-year note at a negative interest rate of -0.017%. The demand for this note showed that savers were willing to pay Finland for the privilege to keep and spend...